Mario Hezonja has started the last three games at point guard. Two were double-digit losses to playoff teams, and one was a feel-good win on the heels of having clinched the league’s best ping-pong odds. The season has long been over. There are no healthy point guards left on the roster. Hezonja has a habit of playing during meaningless springs.

I’m aware of all of this.

About a month ago when I was being unreasonably optimistic about the Knicks’ young talent, mentioning Hezonja never occurred to me. He hadn’t done much, save a dunk and step over the league’s MVP runner-up. I assumed he’d get that last paycheck from the guy who drafted him and find a new temporary home come July. I even gave Mudiay some love 3I mean, it’s possible he could be good one day, right?  Right?, but Mario? Nothing.

I was wrong. He’s shown me enough in this new emergency role that I am now convinced he should be re-signed. Let Mudiay walk. Trade Dennis Smith, Jr. (whose potential I still believe in). Move forward with Frank’s conversion, I guess.

Mario Hezonja is the backup point guard of the future.

Now before I go further, a warning: if you are superstitious, you might want to think twice about reading on. I am operating under the assumption that KD and Kyrie are coming. There is too much smoke to ignore.

And if there is no fire – if come July 1st we are preparing for another lost season – feel free to blame this jinx.

It’s not the averages – 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists over his last three – that led me to this conclusion. It’s not any particular highlight, whether a lob to Knox or a taunt after a big jumper. It’s simple, really: his skill set is perfect for what Fiz wants to do.

The starting “point guard” in Miami during the Big 3 Era was Mario Chalmers. That Mario rarely initiated offense. LeBron and D-Wade created, and Chalmers just played defense and stuck his open jumpers. But when called upon to play with reserves, he had the skills to slide back to a normal point guard’s role.

This Mario could be the 6’8 version of that Mario.

If Fizdale is serious about positionless-ness, this is the most logical move. Leading the reserves, Hezonja would be a mismatch every night. His combination of size and athleticism would cause problems for the opposition and help make up for some of his deficiencies on either end. He plays with pace, he’s unselfish, he moves and cuts when he doesn’t have the ball, he’s a capable shooter, and at the very least he’s active defensively2He’s tied for 4th-best DRtg on the team, not that that’s saying much….

And THEN, he can fit in seamlessly with the stars / starters when called upon. You want to play small-ball around Mitch?  Slide Mario in next to KD for interchangeable forwards. KD’s resting? Plug Mario in and let him play off of Kyrie. Irving’s injured and KD’s taken up primary ball-handling responsibility? Let him play off KD. Fiz wants to go BIG, or Dotson’s having a bad game? Mario can play the 2.

When you look at the situation off the court, his fit makes even more sense. The Knicks’ have no money after shelling out their maxes. Strapped for cash, why not re-sign a guy that can fill multiple voids, that can be your backup 1-4 depending on matchups and injuries? It’s this sort of flexibility that makes him more appealing than anyone else, especially when you consider his personality and potential price tag.

Listen. it’s indisputable that he did not have a good year. He came nowhere close to what optimists expected. He was jerked in an out of the lineup and often balanced flashes of brilliance with, to put it harshly, flashes of idiocy. But:

He’s been an awesome teammate.

He took the DNPs in stride.

He’s selfless, or at least pretends really well (either is fine with me).

And he LOVES being a Knick and being in New York (So did Enes, but this feels more genuine).3Via the Post: “If he gives me that call on July 1, we’re done. My second family is in this organization. Steve [Mills] was the guy that first called me when Phil Jackson was here. Scott Perry drafted me [in Orlando]. Fiz came to LA to bring me here. Coach Smarty [Keith Smart], he’s like my second father. So just wonderful relationships with everybody in the organization. The city embraced me. I just love playing here. We all know where I want to be.’’

In fact, I’m beginning to wonder if Mario’s weird season was by design. It’s worth contemplating: with the revolving door at point guard and Fiz’s previously stated desire to go positionless, why did this take until April? If it’s really just a happy accident, the entire staff should be fired immediately, but I don’t believe they’re that incompetent.

Here’s my theory: members of the front office and staff have pre-existing relationships with him. They did him a favor by signing him for more than he was probably worth. They rebuffed suitors despite all logic and common sense suggesting they should have absolutely traded him. Have they been hiding him? Did they have an inkling he was capable of this? Do they have information – the same sort of information that justifies a KP deal and allows Dolan to be super-confident on the radio – that he’s willing to take a significant discount to return?

Assuming the Exception is earmarked for Jordan, a minimum offer would be something like 2 years, $3.5M. Does he love Scott Perry and NY enough to accept that?

I get the sense the answer to many of those questions is YES. I think, no matter what happens with the roster this summer, you will see him back next year. If they strike out on the big fish, why not? If they snag KD and Kyrie, see above. If they end up trading the rest of the young core to add AD to a Big 3, see above x 10. He fits and fits well in every scenario.

You may see this article as reactionary, idealistic, delusional. I get that. I respect that opinion. But know that this isn’t just me falling in love with a three-game statistical outburst. I’m thinking about the skills. I’m thinking about the natural ability. I’m thinking about what that ability looks like with another year of maturity and the best teammates he’s every played with. I’m also thinking about the riots in NYC if Mudiay returns instead, about the assets that DSJ could fetch if moved, about the other alternatives once the money dries up.

I wouldn’t have thought this a month ago, or even a week ago, but now it makes sense.

I guess these games aren’t so meaningless after all.

With only 14 games left, we can enjoy (or tolerate) this final stretch focused on what was supposed to be our top priority all year long: YOUTH.

The 61 days between now and May 14th will feel like years. Losses will be ugly and abundant. Guys we’re counting on to be cornerstones for the future will look horrible at times. But that’s to be expected.  With only three guys 25 or older, this stretch is about seeing what we have and projecting what they may become.

Part I of this series focused on Frank Ntilikina.
Part II focused on Mitchell Robinson.
Part III focused on Dennis Smith, Jr.
Part IV touches upon EVERYONE ELSE – Knox, Dotson, Trier, and more…

KEVIN KNOX: 12.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1 assist, 36.2% FG, 33.8% 3

What should we make of him?  Will he ever be more than a role player?

If you asked me in November, I would’ve cried.  If you asked me in December, I would’ve offered a resounding YES. But you’re asking me now, so my answer is I have no idea.  

A good stat: Knox is one of only 143 rookies since 1979 (out of well over 2,000 draftees) to average at least 12 points and 4 rebounds per game.

Out of those 143, only 12 were teenagers. The rest of that 12 4 Kobe’s not on it. Neither is Giannis. features guys like LeBron, KD, AD, ‘Melo, and some of the best young players in today’s game (Tatum, Doncic, etc.).

A not-so-good stat: Of those 143 rookies, Knox is far and away the least efficient. He’s 33 percentage points worse than the 142nd-ranked player (Donyell Marshall).

The numbers I understand – basic stats – have fallen off a cliff, and the numbers I don’t understand rate him among the worst players in the League. Needless to say, it’s been a rough year for the #9 overall pick.

Yet when trying to project his and his teammates’ futures, context matters. For example: the Knicks don’t care about wins and have maybe three adequate-or-better defenders on the entire roster, so of course Knox’s defensive stats are going to be atrocious. Hell, Lance Thomas gets run solely because of defense, and his Defensive Rating is only a point better.

The other thing is that Kevin Knox, in case you haven’t heard, is 19. Kevin Knox is the 3rd-youngest player in the NBA. Kevin Knox is going to get better at everything.

So…prediction?

I have no idea. The whole point of this series is, we don’t know what anyone WILL be.

But he CAN be much, much better. With smooth form on his jumper, an underrated ability to get by his man, and an already lethal signature shot (floater), why can’t he become the sort of offensive weapon that contributes to real winning? Why not a 3rd or 4th scorer on a contender?

He has A LOT of work ahead of him, on his body first and foremost. Added strength will lead to greater efficiency as well as improved defense. He also needs to spend time in the film room to develop his court awareness, particularly in regards to recognizing open teammates. He should average 2-3 assists per game by accident.

And when he gets better – when he gets stronger and the game slows down and the situation around him becomes more competent – he will look like a different player, one that can become an All-Star. You roll your eyes, but Giannis struggled as a rookie, too. Jimmy Butler averaged 2.6 PPG on 18% from 3…and he was 23 years old.

If you’re already certain Knox is a disappointment, and you’re basing that conclusion off of a rookie year in which he was thrown into the fire as a top scoring option for the youngest and worst team in the NBA, then you’re missing the point and I can’t help you. 

When the Knicks return to glory and are sending three guys to the All-Star Game, Knox can absolutely be one of those three…2 Kyle Korver made it averaging 12 PPG. James Donaldson, BJ Armstrong, Brad Miller, Jamaal Magloire…shall I keep going?

…if he’s still on the team, that is. Rumor has it we give up on young guys who don’t thrive right away.  

ALLONZO TRIER: 10.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 45% FG, 40.5% 3

He’s been great…shouldn’t he be starting?

From Day 1, he fit the mold of instant offense off the bench, that conscience-less attacking mentality that you want in the ideal sixth man. In fact, in the 36-year history of the 6MOY Award, only four were NOT “score-first” players3 Aaron McKie, Bobby Jones, Bill Walton, and our own gone-too-soon Anthony Mason.”  

Trier looks like the other 32. He’s proven himself to be capable at all three levels, and when featured in a second unit, at times he seems unstoppable.

So despite improvements as a passer – the rapport he’s developed with Mitch has been beautiful – and as a defender, I’d like to see him perfect the 6th man role. Could he start? Certainly. But Fiz has said from the jump that he wants Zo to be himself; the best place for that is as the man off the bench. Besides: as the Knicks overhaul this roster, our studs – whoever they may be – will be best complemented by players who can score but dont need to.

Then when they rest, throw Iso Zo out there and turn him loose.

DAMYEAN DOTSON:  10.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 42% FG, 38.3% 3

What happens when his contract is up next summer?

Prior to the trade deadline, I wrote a piece suggesting the Knicks should move him. Nothing against Dot; I simply viewed him as the asset other teams would value most – a big 3-and-D wing with the physical gifts to switch and hold his own. I thought they could get at least a solid 2nd rounder and with only one year left, I figured why not.

Well, he survived the deadline, and unless a big deal goes down over the summer, he’ll be back for that final year. And then it’s time to make a decision. If Summer 2019 goes well, the Knicks will have spent A LOT of money, and if Dotson continues to build on his improved play, he will command A LOT more than his $1.6M salary.

Most good teams have a guy like this (or are looking for one to complete them…hence my trade proposal). The compliment I hear most often is that he could be our Danny Green. The numbers suggest it’s possible. Maybe even likely. Only time will tell if Dot can become that efficient, but Green also had the benefit of playing with the Spurs. Plug Dot in next to talent, and let’s see what happens.

If we hit the motherload in free agency, I’d take advantage of his Bird Rights and pay him. Every good team needs a guy like this.

(Or he could just become Jimmy Butler without the drama and we could play Knicks Vs. Everyone during All-Star Weekend)

I know, I know – they can’t ALL become stars. Frank can’t become a taller, leaner Kyle Lowry while Mitch becomes a better DJ while Knox becomes Tobias Harris 2.0 while Trier becomes a bigger Lou Williams while Dot becomes Jimmy Butler…listen, I get it. But I resolved to be more positive in 2019, so back the f*** off.

Now, where was I?

THE REST

Are they really going to consider bringing Mudiay back?

Yes, and it’s worth the consideration. Depending on what happens with other free agents. Depending how much other backup PGs will cost vs. how much Mudiay will cost. Depending how he performs these final 14 games.

Here’s the entire list of players in the modern era who have averaged at least 12.5 points, 5 assists, and 3 rebounds per game as rookies:

Mark Jackson, Tim Hardaway, Damon Stoudamire, Allen Iverson, Jason Williams, Steve Francis, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, Michael Carter-Williams, Dennis Smith Jr., Trae Young…and Emmanuel Mudiay.

He’s had an up-and-down year. He’s been horrible since returning from injury. He’s on pace to post the worst Assists per 36 of his career. But he’s made strides as a shooter – his TS% is .532, up from a previous best of .483 – and Fiz seems to love him. Having a coach that loves and believes in you gives you the best chance to reach your full potential. If Fiz is committed to developing him and sees potential to be significantly better than…this, then it’s at least worth the discussion as a Plan B or C.

Any chance Vonleh is back?

Doubtful. Unless we offer our exception (which I’d bet we have earmarked for a vet), we won’t be able to afford him. Which is why we should’ve moved him at the deadline.

Others worth keeping?

John Jenkins and Henry Ellenson both signed non-guaranteed deals that take them into next year. Jenkins has underwhelmed me, but Ellenson is intriguing. He’s listed at 6-11, 245, and in the 9 games he’s played this year, he’s averaged 13.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per 36 on 43.5% shooting from three. Tiny sample size, yes, but when you watch him play you can see the gifts.

These non-guaranteed contracts may be intended for use in summertime trades, but if Ellenson makes it to camp, I’d like to see him back as our 2020 Vonleh.  

I’d also like to see Kadeem Allen back and on the main roster full-time.  

Who wouldn’t want a Patrick Beverley-type coming off the bench? Kadeem really impressed in his time with the big squad, and his toughness and maturity would be a welcome addition to the roster.

Finally, you have to bring back Kornet. He lacks footspeed and struggles on D sometimes because of it, but overall he’s had a good year. Any inconsistencies in play can be traced directly to inconsistent playing time. In 13 games playing 20+ minutes, he’s averaged 12.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks on 42% from 3. That’s enough to warrant at least one more season. Brook Lopez, anyone?4Brook’s averaging 12.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks in 28.3 mpg for the Bucks, in case you were wondering.

I, like you, am desperately looking forward to May and June. I’m tired of watching brick after brick, turnover after turnover, loss after gut-wrenching loss. But we’re almost there. Try to turn off that competitive part of your fandom, turn up your patience and understanding, and focus solely on what the future may hold and how these guys might fit into it. It’ll make these last 14 a lot more interesting and a lot less painful.

The trade deadline has come and gone, and the Knicks were MAJOR players. Now that the dust has settled – vets gone, cap space created, draft picks added – we can spend these last few months focused on what was supposed to be our top priority in the first place: YOUTH.

The three months between now and May 14th will feel like years. Losses will be ugly and abundant. Guys we’re counting on to be cornerstones for the future will look horrible at times. But that’s to be expected. With only two guys left over the age of 25, this stretch is about seeing what we have and projecting what they may become.

Part I of this series focused on Frank Ntilikina.  Part II focuses on the most hyped, most improved player on the roster – Mitchell Robinson.  

Patience should work both ways, right?

We shouldn’t get too down on Frank when he struggles, so we also shouldn’t get too worked up over Mitch when he thrives. I know you don’t want me raining on your parade, but it’s only logical to stay even-keeled with raw talent.  We at Knicks Film School live by this code: never get too excited, one way or another…

You know what? F*** it. It’s been a horrific season, 90% of the press has been negative, the weather’s been sh***y like every other winter, so I’m hopping aboard the Mitch Hype Train, transferring to a ferry bound for Mitch Island, and hitting the beach with my rose-colored glasses to drink my Mitch Kool-Aid.   

[Takes sip]

[Takes another]

If you’ve watched him at all, you can’t deny he passes the eye test with flying colors. His gifts literally jump off the screen – the athleticism, the rim-running, the lob-catching, the shot-blocking, the uncanny ability to cover so much ground and close out effectively on jump shooters. It’s all obviously impressive, so you don’t need numbers to know that star potential is there. But just in case…

That’s right – Mitch compares favorably across the board with some of the best defensive-minded, rim-running bigs of recent years, a group that sports both All-NBA and All-Defensive selections, 2 Defensive Player of the Year awards, 3 Rebounding titles, 6 FG% titles, 2 Block titles, and 23 playoff appearances.

View from Mitch Island: Future DPOY and All-Star Mitchell Robinson will anchor a playoff-bound defense as soon as next year.

Oh, I’m getting ahead of myself? [Takes sip] FOH.

Seriously, how am I supposed to temper expectations? He’s suddenly staying out of foul trouble, has risen to 3rd in Blocks per Game despite playing only 18 MPG, is averaging 10.2 points (on 71.4 TS%) and 8.3 rebounds in February, and then his trainer goes and says he can be an “Anthony Davis-type player”?  

Now that’s unreasonable. Even drunk off this Mitch Juice, I’m not crazy enough to make that comp…

He’s a little bit behind AD in scoring, but it’s close enough – 9 Points Per 100 Possessions is the same gap between James Harden and Steph Curry this year.  

[Takes sip]

View from Mitch Island: If AD is to Harden as Mitch is to Steph, then that means…Mitch is a future unanimous MVP who’ll lead us to multiple titles!  

And look at the rest of these numbers: defensive impact is comparable, FG% gap is embarrassing for a certain disgruntled Pelican, and those O and D Ratings! Mitch must have gotten some really good coaching last year in college to be…wait, what? He didn’t play in college?

So you’re telling me that while Anthony Davis was molded at an NBA factory under Coach Cal prior to his rookie year, Mitch was just at home training by himself? And the numbers are this close?

View from Mitch Island: That wing at Springfield that @JCMacriNBA suggested? Won’t be enough. He’s gonna need his own free-standing, three-level museum.  

You doubters thought the All-Star break – and the fact that he was NOT selected to the Rising Stars game – might get us happy citizens of Rob City to calm down a little bit. Well, you were wrong:

All-Star BREAK? Not when you’re a potentially generational NBA center & the best big in your draft class.

He doesn’t post this stuff himself, but Knicks fans know Mitchell Robinson is always working 💯 @23savage____

(*a little 3-point shooting practice after workouts) pic.twitter.com/Gtvg2kwH9h

— Mayar Zokaei (@ZokaeiWorld) February 18, 2019

We saw him trying to perfect the J pre-draft.  We see the mechanics – not great, but good enough.  We’ve seen the stark rise in FT% to over 69% this month. And now we’ve been blessed with a clip of an effortless three?  

[Refills cup and chugs it]

[Refills again]

I’m trying to wrap my head around this: these former All-Star bigs came into the league with no semblance of a 3-point jump shot and over time developed range? You mean it’s possible for NBA players to add skills they don’t currently have through dedication and hard work? 

Mitch clearly works hard. His sudden significant improvement is evidence enough. If he gets anywhere close to league average…

[Pours Kool-Aid over self, bathing in it]  

View from Mitch Island: With the 36th pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, the New York Knicks selected Rudy Gobert meets Anthony Davis meets Steph Curry.  

He’s the pegasus…or was it unicorn?  He’s the unicorn everyone’s been talking about, right?

Jokes and hyperbole aside, he’s still super raw. Just like Frank, his future is impossible to project. But think about what your eyes tell you. Think about the improvement you’ve seen on both screen and paper. Think about the developmental paths all bigs mentioned above have taken.

It is entirely reasonable to think that Mitchell Robinson is the steal of the 2018 NBA Draft. It is entirely reasonable to think that surrounded by better players next year, he (and his numbers) will improve significantly. And it is entirely reasonable to think that Steve Mills and Scott Perry may have found a franchise cornerstone with that 36th pick.

View from Mitch Island: Forget reasonable. I’ll be reasonable in July. For now, someone just get me a refill.