Frank Ntilikina has struggled with his shot this season. It stands to reason that if he were hitting better than 28.9% from three, he might have avoided some of the benchings and trade rumors he has recently endured.
The margin between success and failure in the NBA can feel pretty slim. If Frank had hit ten more threes than the 28 he’s hit on the year, he’d be at an elite level of over 40 percent. If he’d hit just six more. he’d be at a very respectable 35 percent. Going from bad to good over the next 100 attempts may be a matter of subtle fine-tuning and not some dramatic overhaul.
Free Throws as a Petri Dish
If you want to predict three-point success at the NBA level, surprisingly, using college statistics, free throw percentage is a better indicator than three-point percentage. Part of this might be because it acts like a petri dish in a lab and allows scouts a way to put aside many variables inherent in the sport, like defense or footwork, and simply track a shooter’s form.
Frank shot 27/42 from the line in France (64 percent). So far in the NBA, he is shooting 74.5 percent from the line. But he’s trending up. This season he’s up to a career best mark of 80.8 percent. The video above will show you why he’s making more from the line this season. Hint: he’s more disciplined in his follow through.
When translating to three-pointers, Frank is a better shooter the more closely he uses his free throw form. If you’re skeptical, like me, you can watch the video and say “c’mon Dave, he’s wide open on a lot of the 3’s you included, everyone is better like that.”
And this is fair. But why would this be? Because the closer a defender is, the more it can cause a player to change his shot. Variance, the number one enemy of great shooters, increases as we try to gauge different levels of power, arm drift, or depth perception.
It’s important for Frank to practice using the same form he uses on his free throws, even when we introduce new elements like dribbling, footwork, and a contest from a defender.
The benefit to a good follow through is that it allows a shooter to seek consistency with respect to depth perception. Frank misses lots of shots short, which is not a coincidence since he often drops his follow through, sometimes swings his arms back, or begins heading backwards on defense before his shot even reaches the basket area. Frank doesn’t do any of these things on his free throws.
For a great look into Frank’s foot-work, here is an awesome breakdown by Steve Dagostino, an NBA development coach, who works with Atlanta’s rookie sharp-shooter Kevin Huerter. Frank is still very young and may not even know which of his footwork choices will wind up being the best for him, although it appears he’s more comfy stepping into a shot rather than waiting with a foot planted (except on corner threes, where this changes).
There are plenty of other principles to look at in examining Frank’s shot, including his guide-hand, a slight “tilt” in the positioning of his feet, which some longer armed shooters enjoy, but this video/post was meant to simply point out one area he may be able to improve upon right away.
Go ‘head and pose for us, Frank. You’re better when you’re a bit cocky anyway. Follow through and freeze through the entire shot and don’t go back on D until the ball is long gone from your hands. Give us a chance to take some photos.
Enjoy and let us know what you think in the comments or on twitter.
Happy 2019 folks. Here’s to better form on all of our jump shots.